Conservative Sky News commentator Paul Murray has forecast that Victoria will be the first Australian state to legalise cannabis, with the change coming within the next four years.
Noting he had "never smoked pot" and understood "the consequences of a drugged-up and dumbed-down society", Murray told Sky News viewers that the presence of two Legalise Cannabis MPs alongside the Greens in Victoria's upper house would ultimately force Premier Daniel Andrews to act.
"In Victoria, the Legalise Cannabis people are needed to get anything passed through the upper house, along with the Greens," he said, before claiming, without evidence, that they would "go along with almost anything, maybe even another lockdown, as long as they get closer to their goal."
Murray also pointed to Victoria's position as the first state to legalise euthanasia as evidence that it was "willing to take a big step first."
Acknowledging the complications of legislating across state and federal jurisdictions, he insisted: "I'll keep it nice and simple… Victoria will be the first of the states to legalise or near legalise cannabis within the next four years."
His comments came as a Parliamentary Budget Office report commissioned by the Greens estimated that legalising recreational cannabis could bring in A$28 billion in tax revenue over a decade.
Murray acknowledged that the projected figures are "massive."
"Remember, this would be a voluntary tax, but over the next 10 years, if it was just 15% on top of the sale… it could be $28.2 billion," he said.
"If you bump the tax up to 25%, which is still below the amount that they tax tobacco, it could be $36.6 billion.
"That's the thing about vice taxes, like taxes on alcohol, or tobacco, or potentially on marijuana. These are voluntary. It's not compulsory to consume, and because it's a minority of the population who want these products, you can keep pushing it up and pushing it up… and they'll keep buying.
"Remember, the number of smokers in Australia has reduced, but the tax is bigger than ever before. Tobacco taxes over the next 10 years, based off the current annual number in the budget, would be $124 billion.
He added: "My prediction doesn't seem that crazy after all, does it? A voluntary tax that could produce tens of billions of dollars with… Victoria leading the way. Mark my words, I think this happens in the next four years or so."
