Medicinal cannabis sales in Germany are forecast to surpass €1 billion (A$1.62b) by 2028, driven by sweeping regulatory reforms in Europe's largest economy.
Data and intelligence firm Prohibition Partners (PP) said the passage of the CanG bill legalising adult use — alongside the associated MedCanG Act — has generated considerable growth in the medical market, with sales projected to hit €420 million (A$681m) this year.
According to PP, that projected growth is being driven by several factors, chief among them the removal of cannabis from Germany's schedule of narcotic drugs. That change has cleared previous bottlenecks affecting how cannabis is handled, distributed, dispensed, and prescribed.
"This, in part, is fuelling patient population growth, prescription rates and the rise of medical cannabis telemedicine operators," the company said.
The BfArM (The Federal Institute for Drugs and Medical Devices) has also scrapped the tender process for domestic medicinal cannabis cultivation, enabling new applicants to seek a licence to grow cannabis within the country and broadening competition across the market.
"Doctors in Germany have the freedom to prescribe medical cannabis for any condition they deem may significantly help their patients," PP said. "Additionally, recent policy changes such as removing cannabis from the narcotics list are expected to further improve patient access."
The volume of medicinal cannabis dispensed through pharmacies rose by around 30% in Q3 2023 compared with the same quarter in 2022, according to PP's German Cannabis Report. Patient numbers climbed again following the introduction of the revised cannabis legislation in April 2024.
Germany has an established reimbursement structure for medicinal cannabis through statutory health insurers, which covered approximately half of the market up to 2023, PP said.
It added: "In July 2024, Germany's Federal Joint Committee (G-BA) approved proposals to streamline the reimbursement process, which will likely further ease access… as medical cannabis becomes more affordable."
While the market continues to grow, PP flagged a potential concern for companies currently exporting to Germany. The removal of the cultivation tender process has opened up local production, which PP noted could eventually reduce the country's dependence on imports.
That shift had yet to materialise, however. Following the adoption of the CanG Act, medical cannabis imports rose 44%, with Q2 2024 imports reaching an all-time quarterly high of 11,706 kilograms, up from 8,143kg in Q1.
PP senior analyst and co-author of the report Alex Khourdaji said the country's cannabis market is at "a pivotal point".
He added: "The CanG Act has set in motion a series of transformative changes, creating both opportunities and challenges for businesses and consumers alike.
"The success of these reforms will depend on ongoing adaptation and a commitment to finding a balance between public health, social responsibility, and economic growth."
