A new study from Curtin University has found that rising cigarette costs are prompting Australians over 50 to turn to cannabis as a substitute.
Researchers from Curtin's School of Accounting, Economics and Finance examined the consumption patterns of close to 100,000 Australians between 2001 and 2019, drawing on data from the Australian National Drug Strategy Household Survey.
Their findings showed that higher cigarette prices led to a drop in cannabis use among Australians under 40, while those aged 40 to 50 showed no meaningful change. Among people aged 50 and over, however, cannabis use actually went up.
Lead study author Professor Mark Harris said the outcome was unexpected, given that cannabis and tobacco are typically used together.
"In economic terms, if they're consumed together and it becomes more expensive to buy tobacco, you'd expect cannabis consumption to also fall," he said.
"But what we've found is the relationships between the drugs, and the way people use them, potentially changes with the age of a consumer: cannabis can change from a complement of tobacco, to a replacement."
The researchers also modelled the effect of a 10 per cent increase in tobacco prices — whether achieved through taxation or other mechanisms — on consumer behaviour.
Under that scenario, an estimated 68,000 Australians aged over 50 would increase their cannabis use or try it for the first time as a tobacco alternative.
Co-author Dr Ranjodh Singh said the research demonstrated how consumer behaviour analysis could inform more targeted public health strategies.
"In economics, we have this idea that people behave rationally, that we act according to price. But different segments of the population will respond differently to price increases, that's why we use the term 'life-cycle approach' when looking at consumption.
"So on average, increasing tobacco prices makes cannabis use go down – but the opposite is true for this particular age group.
"This shows applying blanket policies for everybody may not be the best way to improve outcomes across all demographics," Dr Singh added.
